From Mark Cudmore, a former FX trader who writes for Bloomberg.*I Fear the Complacency*
The market is full of counterintuitive price action. This should erode confidence and equities may see a sharp reversal lower soon.
U.S. stocks hit yet another record yesterday. It seems a weird time to suddenly turn bearish, but I’m overwhelmed by a large sense of concern as I gaze across markets.
Equity investors *seem to be in denial of the threat to the global economy from Trump’s proposed protectionist policies*, and instead solely concentrated on stimulus we’re not seeing yet
In contrast, *FX analysts only see possible dollar support from a potential border tax and ignore the dollar negatives *that would come from stimulus widening the current account deficit.
All analysis seems to be based on U.S. policy in isolation and assuming that no other country can or will react to Trump’s policies.
Trump wants to specifically raise taxes on imports from China and Mexico. So, in trade terms, mainly cheap clothes, food and oil, leaving expensive or luxury goods alone. *That looks like a focus on eroding the consumer’s purchasing power. The U.S economy depends on the consumer, yet the administration calls the policies pro-growth*.
The most export-dependent economies in Asia - South Korea and Taiwan - are outperforming their peers so far this year as a trade war beckons.
European bond spreads are widening rapidly. The move is led by Italy due to concern over this week’s constitutional ruling, even though that decision actually significantly reduced the probability of the anti-EU Five Star Movement gaining power.
These contradictions don’t seem to matter though, since stocks are ignoring the stress in other assets anyway, with equity volatility measures plunging. Bonds, FX and emerging markets are less convinced by the wonderful world of equities.
In recent years, I’ve been chided for being eternally optimistic, or a perma-bull, when it comes to markets. I’ve seen the ever-present fear that has pervaded markets as a positive. *But now complacency abounds and it seems to hinge on not much more than hope and a prayer - I’m worried*. Reported by Zero Hedge 3 hours ago.
The Six Nations championship kicks off this weekend and you can keep across the entire tournament from the comfort of your armchair.If you haven't been lucky enough to get a ticket to any of the three games this weekend, have no fear you will not miss a second of the action.Coverage is split between the BBC and ITV. The BBC will have home games from France, Wales and Scotland with ITV getting the home games for England, Ireland and Italy.Read: Eddie Jones comes calling for Hartpury againSo, what...
Reported by Gloucester Citizen 2 hours ago.
CONTINUITY and experience are the key to Rob Howley's selection for Wales's Six Nations opener against Italy in Rome. There are five changes from the victory over the Springboks in the autumn, with Rhys Webb returning to the No. 9 jersey, Nicky Smith getting the nod over Rob Evans at loose-head prop, Scarlets duo Samson Lee and Jake Ball recalled and Sam Warburton selected at blindside flanker. Here's the low-down on Howley's media conference at the Vale of Glamorgan where he explained his...
Reported by Llanelli Star 55 minutes ago.
The Italy striker has discovered a great lease of life with Villarreal, but he does not feel that qualifies him to be compared to the Barcelona star
Reported by Goal.com 45 minutes ago.
The Wales coach believes he has picked the right team to play Italy
Reported by Wales Online 2 hours ago.
The Six Nations Championship gets underway on Saturday, with England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland, France and Italy all battling it out to be crowned kings of Northern hemisphere rugby.
Reported by MailOnline 1 hour ago.
The Italy international left-back has picked up a calf problem in training, handing manager Vincenzo Montella another defensive selection headache
Reported by Goal.com 59 minutes ago.
BORRIANA, Italy—When Mamadou Sissoko first came to Borriana, a village in the northern Italian province of Biella in 2011, he couldn’t read or write in his own language, let alone make any sense of Italian.
