If you suspect you or a family member has coronavirus you should call (not visit) your GP or ring the national Coronavirus Health Information Hotline on 1800 020 080.
Reported by The Age 5 hours ago.
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Coronavirus updates LIVE: US death toll has overtaken Italy's, signs of hope in Spain on Easter Sunday
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U.S. Surpasses Italy In Total COVID-19 Deaths
The United States is now the country with the most COVID-19-related deaths. More than 20,000 Americans have now lost their lives to the disease and more than a half a million have tested positive.
Reported by NPR 5 hours ago.
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Coronavirus latest: US death toll crosses 20,000
Global confirmed cases stand at almost 1.7 million, with more than 100,000 deaths. The US has overtaken Italy to become the country with the highest number of confirmed cases, with more than 20,000 deaths.
Reported by Deutsche Welle 5 hours ago.
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The week that was: Stories from the coronavirus saga
As coronavirus cases topped 1.75 million in the world during the past week — Holy Week for Christians and Passover for Jews — deaths in the United States overtook Italy’s. And fatalities kept adding up sharply in a sequestered, terrified New York City. Associated Press journalists fanned out across the city to compile a portrait, […]
Reported by Seattle Times 5 hours ago.
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United States logs world's highest coronavirus death toll, surpasses Italy
The United States has seen its highest death tolls to date in the epidemic with roughly 2,000 deaths a day reported for the last four days in a row, a plurality of them in and around New York City
Reported by Hindu 4 hours ago.
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20,000: U.S. death toll overtakes Italy's as Midwest braces
The U.S. death toll from the coronavirus eclipsed Italy's for the highest in the world Saturday, surpassing 20,000, as Chicago and other cities across the Midwest braced for…
Reported by Japan Today 4 hours ago.
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Be messengers of life amid death, says Pope Francis at Easter Vigil
Vatican City, Apr 11, 2020 / 03:30 pm (CNA).- Pope Francis urged Christians to be “messengers of life in a time of death” as he celebrated the Easter Vigil in a nearly empty St. Peter’s Basilica amid the coronavirus pandemic.
In his homily April 11, he said: “How beautiful it is to be Christians who offer consolation, who bear the burdens of others and who offer encouragement: messengers of life in a time of death!”
He continued: “Let us silence the cries of death, no more wars! May we stop the production and trade of weapons, since we need bread, not guns. Let the abortion and killing of innocent lives end.”
“May the hearts of those who have enough be open to filling the empty hands of those who do not have the bare necessities.”
With the Vatican under lockdown, the congregation consisted of only a small number of clergy and lay people, who stood spaced apart as a precaution against spreading COVID-19. Officials confirmed an eighth case of the disease among Vatican employees April 8, but have reported no deaths.
St. Peter's, the largest church in the world, is normally packed for the Easter Vigil. This year, vast parts of the basilica were completely empty and silent. Microphones picked up the smallest sounds from the liturgy.
This year’s Easter Vigil liturgy was scaled back. The preparation of the Paschal candle was omitted due to “the health emergency in progress”, the Vatican said, as was the lighting of candles among the faithful.
Instead, the basilica was lit up gradually until it was fully illuminated at the Gloria, when the bells of St. Peter’s tolled. No baptisms took place, only a renewal of baptismal promises.
The pope celebrated the Vigil at the Altar of the Chair, which was flanked by the miraculous crucifix of San Marcello and the Byzantine icon of Mary, Salus Populi Romani.
In his homily, the 83-year-old pope noted that in St Matthew’s Gospel the women found Jesus’ tomb empty “after the Sabbath”.
“This is how the Gospel of this holy Vigil began: with the Sabbath,” he said. “It is the day of the Easter Triduum that we tend to neglect as we eagerly await the passage from Friday’s cross to Easter Sunday’s Alleluia. This year however, we are experiencing, more than ever, the great silence of Holy Saturday.”
“We can imagine ourselves in the position of the women on that day. They, like us, had before their eyes the drama of suffering, of an unexpected tragedy that happened all too suddenly. They had seen death and it weighed on their hearts.”
“Pain was mixed with fear: would they suffer the same fate as the Master? Then too there was fear about the future and all that would need to be rebuilt. A painful memory, a hope cut short. For them, as for us, it was the darkest hour.”
But the women did not allow themselves to be paralyzed, the pope observed.
“Jesus, like a seed buried in the ground, was about to make new life blossom in the world; and these women, by prayer and love, were helping to make that hope flower,” he said. “How many people, in these sad days, have done and are still doing what those women did, sowing seeds of hope! With small gestures of care, affection and prayer.”
The pope said that the Resurrection gave believers a fundamental right: “the right to hope”. This is not mere optimism, he explained, but a gift from heaven.
He then referred to signs currently displayed in windows throughout Italy which proclaim “Andrà tutto bene” (“All will be well”).
“Over these weeks, we have kept repeating, ‘All will be well’, clinging to the beauty of our humanity and allowing words of encouragement to rise up from our hearts,” he said.
“But as the days go by and fears grow, even the boldest hope can dissipate. Jesus’ hope is different. He plants in our hearts the conviction that God is able to make everything work unto good, because even from the grave he brings life.”
He urged listeners undergoing suffering not to give in to despair.
He said: “Dear sister, dear brother, even if in your heart you have buried hope, do not give up: God is greater. Darkness and death do not have the last word. Be strong, for with God nothing is lost!”
More than 107,000 people had died from COVID-19 worldwide as of April 11, according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. Reported by CNA 3 hours ago.
In his homily April 11, he said: “How beautiful it is to be Christians who offer consolation, who bear the burdens of others and who offer encouragement: messengers of life in a time of death!”
He continued: “Let us silence the cries of death, no more wars! May we stop the production and trade of weapons, since we need bread, not guns. Let the abortion and killing of innocent lives end.”
“May the hearts of those who have enough be open to filling the empty hands of those who do not have the bare necessities.”
With the Vatican under lockdown, the congregation consisted of only a small number of clergy and lay people, who stood spaced apart as a precaution against spreading COVID-19. Officials confirmed an eighth case of the disease among Vatican employees April 8, but have reported no deaths.
St. Peter's, the largest church in the world, is normally packed for the Easter Vigil. This year, vast parts of the basilica were completely empty and silent. Microphones picked up the smallest sounds from the liturgy.
This year’s Easter Vigil liturgy was scaled back. The preparation of the Paschal candle was omitted due to “the health emergency in progress”, the Vatican said, as was the lighting of candles among the faithful.
Instead, the basilica was lit up gradually until it was fully illuminated at the Gloria, when the bells of St. Peter’s tolled. No baptisms took place, only a renewal of baptismal promises.
The pope celebrated the Vigil at the Altar of the Chair, which was flanked by the miraculous crucifix of San Marcello and the Byzantine icon of Mary, Salus Populi Romani.
In his homily, the 83-year-old pope noted that in St Matthew’s Gospel the women found Jesus’ tomb empty “after the Sabbath”.
“This is how the Gospel of this holy Vigil began: with the Sabbath,” he said. “It is the day of the Easter Triduum that we tend to neglect as we eagerly await the passage from Friday’s cross to Easter Sunday’s Alleluia. This year however, we are experiencing, more than ever, the great silence of Holy Saturday.”
“We can imagine ourselves in the position of the women on that day. They, like us, had before their eyes the drama of suffering, of an unexpected tragedy that happened all too suddenly. They had seen death and it weighed on their hearts.”
“Pain was mixed with fear: would they suffer the same fate as the Master? Then too there was fear about the future and all that would need to be rebuilt. A painful memory, a hope cut short. For them, as for us, it was the darkest hour.”
But the women did not allow themselves to be paralyzed, the pope observed.
“Jesus, like a seed buried in the ground, was about to make new life blossom in the world; and these women, by prayer and love, were helping to make that hope flower,” he said. “How many people, in these sad days, have done and are still doing what those women did, sowing seeds of hope! With small gestures of care, affection and prayer.”
The pope said that the Resurrection gave believers a fundamental right: “the right to hope”. This is not mere optimism, he explained, but a gift from heaven.
He then referred to signs currently displayed in windows throughout Italy which proclaim “Andrà tutto bene” (“All will be well”).
“Over these weeks, we have kept repeating, ‘All will be well’, clinging to the beauty of our humanity and allowing words of encouragement to rise up from our hearts,” he said.
“But as the days go by and fears grow, even the boldest hope can dissipate. Jesus’ hope is different. He plants in our hearts the conviction that God is able to make everything work unto good, because even from the grave he brings life.”
He urged listeners undergoing suffering not to give in to despair.
He said: “Dear sister, dear brother, even if in your heart you have buried hope, do not give up: God is greater. Darkness and death do not have the last word. Be strong, for with God nothing is lost!”
More than 107,000 people had died from COVID-19 worldwide as of April 11, according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. Reported by CNA 3 hours ago.
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US Now World Leader In Coronavirus Deaths
The United States became the world leader in coronavirus deaths Saturday, a grim indicator of the country’s status as the global epicenter of the pandemic.
As of Saturday afternoon, the U.S. had recorded about 519,400 COVID-19 cases and 20,071 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University statistics.
The figures showed the U.S. leading all other countries in the number of confirmed cases and fatalities, surpassing Italy’s death toll for the first time. Italy’s total was 19,468 on Saturday, Hopkins’ statistics showed.
The U.S. also became the world’s first country to report more than 2,000 COVID-19 deaths in a single day. The U.S. reported 2,108 fatalities Friday, the world’s highest one-day death toll since the outbreak began in China in late December.
New York is the hardest-hit state in the U.S., with Governor Andrew Cuomo reporting Saturday that there were 783 deaths on Friday, raising the state’s death toll to more than 8,600.
To help stem the spread of the virus, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced the city’s public schools would remain closed through the end of the school year for the 1.1 million children in the city’s system.
De Blasio said the decision was “painful” but “I can also tell you [it] is the right thing to do. It will clearly help us save lives.”
The World Health Organization said Saturday that it was examining reports of recovered COVID-19 patients testing positive again in South Korea as they were about to be discharged from hospitals.
Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters the virus might have been “reactivated” in 91 patients instead of their being reinfected.
The WHO said in a statement that “we are aware of these reports of individuals who have tested negative for COVID-19 using PCR [polymerase chain reaction] testing and then after some days testing positive again.” The organization said it was “closely liaising with our clinical experts and working hard to get more information on those individual cases.”
South Korean health officials said epidemiological investigations were underway to determine the causes of the apparent reactivations.
As the WHO and countries throughout the world grapple with containing the pandemic, the coronavirus continues its spread as billions of people on lockdown celebrate Easter weekend from their homes.
There were more than 1.76 million cases and more than 108,000 deaths worldwide as of Saturday afternoon, according to Hopkins’ statistics.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday that deciding when to reopen the country would be “the biggest decision I’ve ever had to make” and that he would weigh the pros and cons of the decision with his health and economic advisers.
What was not clear, however, was whether all the states would follow what Trump said. Trump did not officially close down the country, leaving each governor, instead, to decide for his or her state.
Trump has said he would like the country opened up again on May 1, despite a warning from the WHO on Friday that lifting lockdown measures too quickly could trigger a “deadly resurgence” of the coronavirus.
Trump acknowledged Friday the possibility of higher death tolls if businesses reopened too soon, saying, “But you know what? Staying at home leads to death also.”
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-diseases expert, told CNN that “the virus kind of decides whether it’s appropriate to open or not.” He cautioned that moving too early could result in another surge of infections.
The nationwide lockdown in Argentina that was set to end on Sunday has been extended to April 26. President Alberto Fernandez made the announcement Saturday, when he also said travel restrictions would be eased in some areas in the coming days.
As the virus spreads and death tolls climb, many public health experts throughout the world believe fatalities are actually much higher than have been reported, because postmortem testing has been limited. Some COVID-19 deaths were not attributed to the disease, they think, and other deaths go unreported because of homelessness and other factors.
China continued to report low numbers of new cases of the virus Friday, saying Hubei province, where the virus originated, logged zero new cases, while the rest of China recorded 46 new cases.
A Chinese study suggested that coronavirus particles can travel up to four meters from infected patients. The WHO recommends that people stay at least one meter away from someone who is sneezing, while the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends a distance of about two meters.
The study, published Friday in the CDC publication Emerging Infectious Diseases, was conducted February 10 to March 2 in two hospitals in Wuhan, China.
A study conducted in the U.S. by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that sneezes and coughs could spread the virus more than 8.2 meters.
The post US Now World Leader In Coronavirus Deaths appeared first on Eurasia Review. Reported by Eurasia Review 3 hours ago.
As of Saturday afternoon, the U.S. had recorded about 519,400 COVID-19 cases and 20,071 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University statistics.
The figures showed the U.S. leading all other countries in the number of confirmed cases and fatalities, surpassing Italy’s death toll for the first time. Italy’s total was 19,468 on Saturday, Hopkins’ statistics showed.
The U.S. also became the world’s first country to report more than 2,000 COVID-19 deaths in a single day. The U.S. reported 2,108 fatalities Friday, the world’s highest one-day death toll since the outbreak began in China in late December.
New York is the hardest-hit state in the U.S., with Governor Andrew Cuomo reporting Saturday that there were 783 deaths on Friday, raising the state’s death toll to more than 8,600.
To help stem the spread of the virus, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced the city’s public schools would remain closed through the end of the school year for the 1.1 million children in the city’s system.
De Blasio said the decision was “painful” but “I can also tell you [it] is the right thing to do. It will clearly help us save lives.”
The World Health Organization said Saturday that it was examining reports of recovered COVID-19 patients testing positive again in South Korea as they were about to be discharged from hospitals.
Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters the virus might have been “reactivated” in 91 patients instead of their being reinfected.
The WHO said in a statement that “we are aware of these reports of individuals who have tested negative for COVID-19 using PCR [polymerase chain reaction] testing and then after some days testing positive again.” The organization said it was “closely liaising with our clinical experts and working hard to get more information on those individual cases.”
South Korean health officials said epidemiological investigations were underway to determine the causes of the apparent reactivations.
As the WHO and countries throughout the world grapple with containing the pandemic, the coronavirus continues its spread as billions of people on lockdown celebrate Easter weekend from their homes.
There were more than 1.76 million cases and more than 108,000 deaths worldwide as of Saturday afternoon, according to Hopkins’ statistics.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday that deciding when to reopen the country would be “the biggest decision I’ve ever had to make” and that he would weigh the pros and cons of the decision with his health and economic advisers.
What was not clear, however, was whether all the states would follow what Trump said. Trump did not officially close down the country, leaving each governor, instead, to decide for his or her state.
Trump has said he would like the country opened up again on May 1, despite a warning from the WHO on Friday that lifting lockdown measures too quickly could trigger a “deadly resurgence” of the coronavirus.
Trump acknowledged Friday the possibility of higher death tolls if businesses reopened too soon, saying, “But you know what? Staying at home leads to death also.”
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-diseases expert, told CNN that “the virus kind of decides whether it’s appropriate to open or not.” He cautioned that moving too early could result in another surge of infections.
The nationwide lockdown in Argentina that was set to end on Sunday has been extended to April 26. President Alberto Fernandez made the announcement Saturday, when he also said travel restrictions would be eased in some areas in the coming days.
As the virus spreads and death tolls climb, many public health experts throughout the world believe fatalities are actually much higher than have been reported, because postmortem testing has been limited. Some COVID-19 deaths were not attributed to the disease, they think, and other deaths go unreported because of homelessness and other factors.
China continued to report low numbers of new cases of the virus Friday, saying Hubei province, where the virus originated, logged zero new cases, while the rest of China recorded 46 new cases.
A Chinese study suggested that coronavirus particles can travel up to four meters from infected patients. The WHO recommends that people stay at least one meter away from someone who is sneezing, while the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends a distance of about two meters.
The study, published Friday in the CDC publication Emerging Infectious Diseases, was conducted February 10 to March 2 in two hospitals in Wuhan, China.
A study conducted in the U.S. by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that sneezes and coughs could spread the virus more than 8.2 meters.
The post US Now World Leader In Coronavirus Deaths appeared first on Eurasia Review. Reported by Eurasia Review 3 hours ago.
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Coronavirus: US death toll overtakes Italy as world's highest
The United States now has more than 20,000 deaths and more than half a million cases.
Reported by BBC News 3 hours ago.
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What you need to know today about the virus outbreak
The U.S. death toll from the coronavirus eclipsed Italy’s to become the highest in the world at more than 19,700, as Chicago and other cities across the Midwest braced for a potential surge in victims. Meanwhile, the coronavirus crisis is taxing New York City’s 911 system like never before.
President Donald Trump and his officials have made critical promises meant to reassure a country in the throes of the pandemic. But Americans are still going without medical supplies and financial help from the government at the very time they need it most — and were told they would have it.
Europe is trying to persuade its residents to stay home ahead of the Easter holiday and the anticipated sunny weather while grappling with how and when to start loosening the weekslong shutdowns of much of public life.
Doctors around the world are frantically trying to figure out how COVID-19 is killing their patients so they can attempt new ways to fight back.
Here are some of AP’s top stories Saturday on the world’s coronavirus pandemic. Follow APNews.com/VirusOutbreak for updates through the day and APNews.com/UnderstandingtheOutbreak for stories explaining some of its complexities.
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THE FIGHT FOR NEW YORK: Listen to AP’s coronavirus podcast, “Ground Game: Inside the Outbreak,” for an interview with three AP reporters who worked on “24 Hours: The Fight for New York,” a multiformat package following 10 New Yorkers as they negotiate life in a city transformed by the virus.
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WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY:
— Republican leaders in the U.S. Congress prefer to replenish a small-business program rather than negotiate a broader coronavirus package that Democrats are pushing with the White House.
— Congo, which has been battling an Ebola outbreak that killed thousands of... Reported by SeattlePI.com 3 hours ago.
President Donald Trump and his officials have made critical promises meant to reassure a country in the throes of the pandemic. But Americans are still going without medical supplies and financial help from the government at the very time they need it most — and were told they would have it.
Europe is trying to persuade its residents to stay home ahead of the Easter holiday and the anticipated sunny weather while grappling with how and when to start loosening the weekslong shutdowns of much of public life.
Doctors around the world are frantically trying to figure out how COVID-19 is killing their patients so they can attempt new ways to fight back.
Here are some of AP’s top stories Saturday on the world’s coronavirus pandemic. Follow APNews.com/VirusOutbreak for updates through the day and APNews.com/UnderstandingtheOutbreak for stories explaining some of its complexities.
___
THE FIGHT FOR NEW YORK: Listen to AP’s coronavirus podcast, “Ground Game: Inside the Outbreak,” for an interview with three AP reporters who worked on “24 Hours: The Fight for New York,” a multiformat package following 10 New Yorkers as they negotiate life in a city transformed by the virus.
___
WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY:
— Republican leaders in the U.S. Congress prefer to replenish a small-business program rather than negotiate a broader coronavirus package that Democrats are pushing with the White House.
— Congo, which has been battling an Ebola outbreak that killed thousands of... Reported by SeattlePI.com 3 hours ago.
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Andrea Bocelli To Livestream Easter Concert From Milan Cathedral
Famed Italian opera singer Andrea Bocelli will livestream on Easter Sunday a solo concert from the Santa Maria Nascente Cathedral in Milan. The performer says he aims to send a message of hope, love, and healing to the world amid the global coronavirus pandemic.
“I believe in the strength of praying together; I believe in the Christian Easter, a universal symbol of rebirth that everyone – whether they are believers or not – truly needs right now,” Bocelli said in a statement about the concert.
“Thanks to music, streamed live, bringing together millions of clasped hands everywhere in the world, we will embrace the wounded planet’s pulsing heart” Bocelli said, “on the day in which we celebrate the trust in a life that triumphs.
The singer, a practicing Catholic who has sold more than 90 million albums around the world, was invited to perform the concert by the city of Milan and cathedral administrators. The cathedral will be nearly empty during Bocelli’s performance. The Milan church is the largest in Italy; St. Peter’s Basilica, which is larger, is in the Vatican City State.
Bocelli is expected to perform a collection of religious pieces, in a performance he said will be “an occasion to pray together through music.”
The Andrea Bocelli Foundation has in recent weeks raised money to support hospitals treating coronavirus patients. The performance will take place at 9 p.m. in Milan, 1 p.m on the east coast of the U.S.
“It will be a joy to witness it, in the Duomo, during the Easter celebration which evokes the mystery of birth and rebirth,” Bocelli said of the concert.
The post Andrea Bocelli To Livestream Easter Concert From Milan Cathedral appeared first on Eurasia Review. Reported by Eurasia Review 2 hours ago.
“I believe in the strength of praying together; I believe in the Christian Easter, a universal symbol of rebirth that everyone – whether they are believers or not – truly needs right now,” Bocelli said in a statement about the concert.
“Thanks to music, streamed live, bringing together millions of clasped hands everywhere in the world, we will embrace the wounded planet’s pulsing heart” Bocelli said, “on the day in which we celebrate the trust in a life that triumphs.
The singer, a practicing Catholic who has sold more than 90 million albums around the world, was invited to perform the concert by the city of Milan and cathedral administrators. The cathedral will be nearly empty during Bocelli’s performance. The Milan church is the largest in Italy; St. Peter’s Basilica, which is larger, is in the Vatican City State.
Bocelli is expected to perform a collection of religious pieces, in a performance he said will be “an occasion to pray together through music.”
The Andrea Bocelli Foundation has in recent weeks raised money to support hospitals treating coronavirus patients. The performance will take place at 9 p.m. in Milan, 1 p.m on the east coast of the U.S.
“It will be a joy to witness it, in the Duomo, during the Easter celebration which evokes the mystery of birth and rebirth,” Bocelli said of the concert.
The post Andrea Bocelli To Livestream Easter Concert From Milan Cathedral appeared first on Eurasia Review. Reported by Eurasia Review 2 hours ago.
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Covid 19: Why is NZ's mortality rate so low?
With four deaths associated with Covid-19, New Zealand's mortality rate is just 0.3 percent. That's a stark contrast to Italy and the US, which have both recorded almost 20,000 deaths.The number of deaths related to Covid-19 in...
Reported by New Zealand Herald 2 hours ago.
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Spain’s Coronavirus Death Toll Slows, Government Mulls Easing Lockdown
(EurActiv) — The coronavirus death toll curve in Spain flattened further on Friday (10 April) as the government debated different strategies to start phasing out one of the world’s strictest lockdowns.
With more than 15,800 fatalities, Spain has the second highest death toll from the COVID-19 disease worldwide after Italy, and Spaniards have been off the streets since mid-March. But the slowdown in the rate of infection and the death toll has enabled officials to consider a gradual easing of the lockdown.
“The government is preparing new scenarios of de-escalation,” Health Minister Salvador Illa told reporters.
Even though several officials have said the formal lockdown will probably continue into May, some restrictions will be lifted on Monday to breathe life into a paralysed economy.
Two weeks ago, the government banned all non-essential workers from the streets, effectively shutting down most businesses. From Monday, though, some job categories such as construction workers will be allowed out of their homes again and some factories will reopen.
Further easing of the lockdown will depend on medical analysis of the epidemic’s evolution, Illa said.
“These are very complex decisions that require multi-disciplinary analysis,” he said.
Though many people will return to work, social distancing should be maintained, Maria Jose Sierra, the deputy head of health emergencies, said at a virtual news conference.
“We will give a series of recommendations. The most important is if there is a person who shows the slightest symptom, they should contact the health system and remain in self-isolation,” she said.
Illa recommended people to wear protective masks and said the authorities would give them away at places such as underground and suburban train stations, adding that the country remains in lockdown.
This means traditional ceremonies and other large gatherings to mark Good Friday, one of the most important days in the Christian calendar, are cancelled.
On social networks, many Spaniards held virtual processions wearing traditional dresses and playing folk music.
In the Castilian town of Cuenca, drummers went out onto their balconies or doorsteps to play folk songs they would usually performa round the town.
The number of daily deaths fell to 605 on Friday, the lowest figure since 24 March, the health ministry said. The rate of increase has dropped to 4%, down from 20% two weeks ago. Spain’s total death toll stood at 15,843 as of Friday.
“We are seeing the curves are on the decline, even though there are still many cases,” Sierra added.
The post Spain’s Coronavirus Death Toll Slows, Government Mulls Easing Lockdown appeared first on Eurasia Review. Reported by Eurasia Review 2 hours ago.
With more than 15,800 fatalities, Spain has the second highest death toll from the COVID-19 disease worldwide after Italy, and Spaniards have been off the streets since mid-March. But the slowdown in the rate of infection and the death toll has enabled officials to consider a gradual easing of the lockdown.
“The government is preparing new scenarios of de-escalation,” Health Minister Salvador Illa told reporters.
Even though several officials have said the formal lockdown will probably continue into May, some restrictions will be lifted on Monday to breathe life into a paralysed economy.
Two weeks ago, the government banned all non-essential workers from the streets, effectively shutting down most businesses. From Monday, though, some job categories such as construction workers will be allowed out of their homes again and some factories will reopen.
Further easing of the lockdown will depend on medical analysis of the epidemic’s evolution, Illa said.
“These are very complex decisions that require multi-disciplinary analysis,” he said.
Though many people will return to work, social distancing should be maintained, Maria Jose Sierra, the deputy head of health emergencies, said at a virtual news conference.
“We will give a series of recommendations. The most important is if there is a person who shows the slightest symptom, they should contact the health system and remain in self-isolation,” she said.
Illa recommended people to wear protective masks and said the authorities would give them away at places such as underground and suburban train stations, adding that the country remains in lockdown.
This means traditional ceremonies and other large gatherings to mark Good Friday, one of the most important days in the Christian calendar, are cancelled.
On social networks, many Spaniards held virtual processions wearing traditional dresses and playing folk music.
In the Castilian town of Cuenca, drummers went out onto their balconies or doorsteps to play folk songs they would usually performa round the town.
The number of daily deaths fell to 605 on Friday, the lowest figure since 24 March, the health ministry said. The rate of increase has dropped to 4%, down from 20% two weeks ago. Spain’s total death toll stood at 15,843 as of Friday.
“We are seeing the curves are on the decline, even though there are still many cases,” Sierra added.
The post Spain’s Coronavirus Death Toll Slows, Government Mulls Easing Lockdown appeared first on Eurasia Review. Reported by Eurasia Review 2 hours ago.
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Geopolitics Of Health – OpEd
In times of war (such as WWI) biological weapons served to defeat the enemy. In peacetime, gun wars were no longer considered conventional since today’s cyber wars became the new fashion in modern wars. It is no longer necessary neither profitable to provoke a war on a nuclear scale when society today lives in a parallel digital world where every human identity can be traced and revealed digitally through a computer.
Today’s free market economy can be easily compromised by hacking the network system of a multinational corporation. Cyber wars are the new electronic battlefield. The greatest harm for the economy today is achieved through non-conventional means. Alternative means of warfare have shaped the academic notion of international security. To understand how a country or a non-state entity dominates or influence the geopolitical landscape, involvement of non-conventional means should also be taken under loop.
Now we are facing a pandemic crisis with the rise of a virus that started in China and spread rapidly across the globe. Immediately, after the break of COVID 19 as a serious threat to human lives, the first action that world powers initiated was to accuse each other of calling the coronavirus a possible biological attack on humanity. Keeping a good image in the event of this crisis seemed to be more important than finding a mutual solution to the problem. Dwelling on those claims wouldn’t bring answers without sliding into the conspiracy field. Economy today is interconnected so any attack of this nature would cause a very wide range of damage. What we can answer for certain is how the escalation of global health crisis defines relationship between world powers and other minor actors within the global economy.
**Rejection of Chinese success**
Based on actual data, China is recovering. What’s important to know is how China managed to keep the situation effectively under control without inducing the need for a cure. China sets an example how discipline, mobilization, and organization can reduce the impact of this deadly virus.
In front of a mobilized China, Western countries are still struggling to keep the situation stable while pointing fingers towards China’s transparency in regard to their data; accusing them of hiding a reality that supposes that China has a much greater number of victims than officially declared. China is establishing a strong role in fighting the virus globally by supporting and supplying countries that have gone out of protective masks.
On the other hand, Western powers are confronted with a new reality that disturbs the balance between economic vitality and peoples’ health. Countries should remind that a state originates from man and thus it must guarantee for him. The same applies for corporations. The United States realized this when they provided up to $1,200 as an economic relief for individuals. Now that China is topping newspaper headlines as a successful crisis preventer, Western powers will find it difficult to accept China’s success and new global role.
**Economic dependence and comparative advantage as determinants of the future**
The well-known theoretical concept of trade between countries is based on the premise that countries should produce what they can produce best and export it to other countries. For example, country A produces product A better than country B, while country B produces product B better than country A. As effect countries establish an interdependent relationship. This type of exchange is otherwise known in international trade theory as a Comparative Advantage. Such an economic climate stimulates the growth of multinational corporations, the benefit of which also raises a country’s perspective.
In this economic structure, man as a buying force, keeps the economy alive. Man exercises his presence and lives with a comforting assurance that in such times, and in a world that is being democratized, life has no way of being compromised anymore. As time passed, we’ve got the impression that life in developed industrialized countries has never been safer.
However, with the spread of coronavirus, politics started to turn to their previous discourse; border controls, xenophobia, distrust among countries and fear which comes from outside. We failed to recall that the country has a social responsibility to every citizen. In times of crisis, people look up to their leaders, but when leaders cannot keep back their own panic, the trust and legitimacy of government starts to fall. So, rather evaluating the abilities of a country in an interconnected and interdependent world, it is sometimes necessary to analyze a country’s survival abilities in times of crisis such as these when we get challenged with isolation, financial crisis or even potential conflicts. This thinking is important especially for smaller countries that depend on foreign aid and supply of major producers.
**The future for EU**
Voices in Italy just began to echo slogans of a European Union that betrayed them. How Italy’s foreign policy will look in the near future is not uncertain anymore. The vision of a free moving European population beyond borders has now been replaced with a closing mindset. Countries of the Western Balkans had the greatest Euro-Atlantic aspiration to become part of the European family, while in Europe, the movements of the far right were already growing and it is also possible that the coronavirus will further influence their growth. We are talking about movements that want to restore borders, keep the immigrants away and get homogenized again.
The coronavirus has increased suspicion among humans. The human egocentric nature has never been more present than when we witnessed how people were carrying more food than needed at grocery stores as they feared that their country may run out of food supplies. It is no longer a matter of expertise to understand the fate of the European Union after this pandemic crisis. Now EU leading countries as Germany and France need to act quickly and carefully in order to avoid an escalation of the European perspective.
**The Kosovo example**
The question I often ask in discussions and writing is whether there will be a European Union at a time when Kosovo’s turn has come to become part of the family? Kosovo’s major foreign policy strategy relies on Euro-Atlantic aspirations and its governments were committed to join EU one day. Kosovo is located in Western Balkans and declared independence from Serbia on 2008 with the support of US and EU which continue to play a major role in building democratic institutions in Kosovo. But, as leading politicians in Kosovo were accused for corruption and organized crime, Kosovo made one step back in fulfilling criteria for EU visa liberalization which grants Kosovo citizens the right to move freely across EU. As finally in 2019, when politics in Kosovo started to change and the majority of people voted for a new generation of politicians that were showing a convincing plan to end corruption, develop the economy and strengthen the rule of law, the very first time it looked like people were ready to give up immigrating illegally to Europe and stay to their homeland.
A shifting mentality in state affairs that kicked nepotism out of practice has shown that visa liberalization may not be so far away for its isolated people. The younger generation looked to the future more optimistically. Albin Kurti, as the new Prime Minister of Kosovo who successfully managed to reach a coalition with the second force in the country (LDK) was finally ready to start working. On winning the elections, he received congratulations from many leaders, including the Austrian leader, Sebastian Kurz, who was known for his reservations towards immigrants. With Kurti, Kosovo seemed to be one step closer to EU. Former governments in Kosovo have been criticized for not being fully committed to fighting corruption and strengthen the rule of law. This was the ideal chance for Kosovo’s new government to demonstrate that they can do better in this regard. All of the sudden, while coronavirus proved deadly to people around the world, in Kosovo it was deadly to the new government led by Kurti, which was quickly brought down by a motion of no-confidence vote of disputes over how to respond to the pandemic crisis and the controversy about the 100 percent tariffs imposed on Serbia.
When European ambassadors criticized parties to put politics aside and concentrate on coronavirus, the United States had officially welcomed the formation of a parliamentary session to vote for a motion that would leave Kosovo without a governing force. This happened at a time when social distance was almost mandatory. This rift between the EU and the US on Kosovo had created divided thoughts and heated debates in Kosovo’s public opinion which always thought that Western powers would guarantee its sovereignty, but suddenly faced by the fact that the changing political rhetoric of a Western country can also affect small countries such as Kosovo.
Prominent journalists in Kosovo panicked that US could cool relations with Kosovo, and leave behind a military weak Kosovo that forgot to develop and learn how to protect itself over the years. Now, we can ask the question whether it is a wise strategy for a tiny country to rely its sovereignty on ‘Euro-Atlantism’ while the latter is changing to protectionist rhetoric. Is Kosovo strong enough to withstand any possible threat from Serbia that still considers it an integral part of its own and officially speaks to the Kosovo authorities with contempt and discrimination? Is there any possibility for Kosovo to stand on its own in occasions where it could get abandoned by its allies? Questions like these are unlikely to be answered if we take the international terrain as a garden full flowers and sunshine where everyone wants to live in harmony.
**Health ideology**
Health ideology returns the character of a state into its classic discourse. While witnessing the dominant roles of multinational giant corporations such as Google and Facebook, it is obvious that in matters of life and death, all companies can contribute beyond profit but cannot guarantee peoples’ lives which depend on salary and work. Coronavirus turned out to be a kind of mirror that gave countries a fragile view of themselves, countries that maybe failed to remind their role on ensuring people’s well-being in situations where companies cannot take responsibilities for them.
Despite the use of this pandemic for political means, solidarity between countries appears to be still present. Coronavirus will define who is going to dominate in global issues of the future. Countries within the EU will surely reflect and reconsider policies following this crisis. In countries where corporations constitute liberal spirit and identity of nations, every means to get out of crisis will be necessary. Whether the political outlook will change globally after coronavirus is almost certain. Finally, it is very important that leaders of world powers show exemplary leadership qualities so that citizens of the world can have at least a good night sleep and not think about uncertainties of tomorrow.
*Ali Hoxha has studied International Relations.
The post Geopolitics Of Health – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review. Reported by Eurasia Review 2 hours ago.
Today’s free market economy can be easily compromised by hacking the network system of a multinational corporation. Cyber wars are the new electronic battlefield. The greatest harm for the economy today is achieved through non-conventional means. Alternative means of warfare have shaped the academic notion of international security. To understand how a country or a non-state entity dominates or influence the geopolitical landscape, involvement of non-conventional means should also be taken under loop.
Now we are facing a pandemic crisis with the rise of a virus that started in China and spread rapidly across the globe. Immediately, after the break of COVID 19 as a serious threat to human lives, the first action that world powers initiated was to accuse each other of calling the coronavirus a possible biological attack on humanity. Keeping a good image in the event of this crisis seemed to be more important than finding a mutual solution to the problem. Dwelling on those claims wouldn’t bring answers without sliding into the conspiracy field. Economy today is interconnected so any attack of this nature would cause a very wide range of damage. What we can answer for certain is how the escalation of global health crisis defines relationship between world powers and other minor actors within the global economy.
**Rejection of Chinese success**
Based on actual data, China is recovering. What’s important to know is how China managed to keep the situation effectively under control without inducing the need for a cure. China sets an example how discipline, mobilization, and organization can reduce the impact of this deadly virus.
In front of a mobilized China, Western countries are still struggling to keep the situation stable while pointing fingers towards China’s transparency in regard to their data; accusing them of hiding a reality that supposes that China has a much greater number of victims than officially declared. China is establishing a strong role in fighting the virus globally by supporting and supplying countries that have gone out of protective masks.
On the other hand, Western powers are confronted with a new reality that disturbs the balance between economic vitality and peoples’ health. Countries should remind that a state originates from man and thus it must guarantee for him. The same applies for corporations. The United States realized this when they provided up to $1,200 as an economic relief for individuals. Now that China is topping newspaper headlines as a successful crisis preventer, Western powers will find it difficult to accept China’s success and new global role.
**Economic dependence and comparative advantage as determinants of the future**
The well-known theoretical concept of trade between countries is based on the premise that countries should produce what they can produce best and export it to other countries. For example, country A produces product A better than country B, while country B produces product B better than country A. As effect countries establish an interdependent relationship. This type of exchange is otherwise known in international trade theory as a Comparative Advantage. Such an economic climate stimulates the growth of multinational corporations, the benefit of which also raises a country’s perspective.
In this economic structure, man as a buying force, keeps the economy alive. Man exercises his presence and lives with a comforting assurance that in such times, and in a world that is being democratized, life has no way of being compromised anymore. As time passed, we’ve got the impression that life in developed industrialized countries has never been safer.
However, with the spread of coronavirus, politics started to turn to their previous discourse; border controls, xenophobia, distrust among countries and fear which comes from outside. We failed to recall that the country has a social responsibility to every citizen. In times of crisis, people look up to their leaders, but when leaders cannot keep back their own panic, the trust and legitimacy of government starts to fall. So, rather evaluating the abilities of a country in an interconnected and interdependent world, it is sometimes necessary to analyze a country’s survival abilities in times of crisis such as these when we get challenged with isolation, financial crisis or even potential conflicts. This thinking is important especially for smaller countries that depend on foreign aid and supply of major producers.
**The future for EU**
Voices in Italy just began to echo slogans of a European Union that betrayed them. How Italy’s foreign policy will look in the near future is not uncertain anymore. The vision of a free moving European population beyond borders has now been replaced with a closing mindset. Countries of the Western Balkans had the greatest Euro-Atlantic aspiration to become part of the European family, while in Europe, the movements of the far right were already growing and it is also possible that the coronavirus will further influence their growth. We are talking about movements that want to restore borders, keep the immigrants away and get homogenized again.
The coronavirus has increased suspicion among humans. The human egocentric nature has never been more present than when we witnessed how people were carrying more food than needed at grocery stores as they feared that their country may run out of food supplies. It is no longer a matter of expertise to understand the fate of the European Union after this pandemic crisis. Now EU leading countries as Germany and France need to act quickly and carefully in order to avoid an escalation of the European perspective.
**The Kosovo example**
The question I often ask in discussions and writing is whether there will be a European Union at a time when Kosovo’s turn has come to become part of the family? Kosovo’s major foreign policy strategy relies on Euro-Atlantic aspirations and its governments were committed to join EU one day. Kosovo is located in Western Balkans and declared independence from Serbia on 2008 with the support of US and EU which continue to play a major role in building democratic institutions in Kosovo. But, as leading politicians in Kosovo were accused for corruption and organized crime, Kosovo made one step back in fulfilling criteria for EU visa liberalization which grants Kosovo citizens the right to move freely across EU. As finally in 2019, when politics in Kosovo started to change and the majority of people voted for a new generation of politicians that were showing a convincing plan to end corruption, develop the economy and strengthen the rule of law, the very first time it looked like people were ready to give up immigrating illegally to Europe and stay to their homeland.
A shifting mentality in state affairs that kicked nepotism out of practice has shown that visa liberalization may not be so far away for its isolated people. The younger generation looked to the future more optimistically. Albin Kurti, as the new Prime Minister of Kosovo who successfully managed to reach a coalition with the second force in the country (LDK) was finally ready to start working. On winning the elections, he received congratulations from many leaders, including the Austrian leader, Sebastian Kurz, who was known for his reservations towards immigrants. With Kurti, Kosovo seemed to be one step closer to EU. Former governments in Kosovo have been criticized for not being fully committed to fighting corruption and strengthen the rule of law. This was the ideal chance for Kosovo’s new government to demonstrate that they can do better in this regard. All of the sudden, while coronavirus proved deadly to people around the world, in Kosovo it was deadly to the new government led by Kurti, which was quickly brought down by a motion of no-confidence vote of disputes over how to respond to the pandemic crisis and the controversy about the 100 percent tariffs imposed on Serbia.
When European ambassadors criticized parties to put politics aside and concentrate on coronavirus, the United States had officially welcomed the formation of a parliamentary session to vote for a motion that would leave Kosovo without a governing force. This happened at a time when social distance was almost mandatory. This rift between the EU and the US on Kosovo had created divided thoughts and heated debates in Kosovo’s public opinion which always thought that Western powers would guarantee its sovereignty, but suddenly faced by the fact that the changing political rhetoric of a Western country can also affect small countries such as Kosovo.
Prominent journalists in Kosovo panicked that US could cool relations with Kosovo, and leave behind a military weak Kosovo that forgot to develop and learn how to protect itself over the years. Now, we can ask the question whether it is a wise strategy for a tiny country to rely its sovereignty on ‘Euro-Atlantism’ while the latter is changing to protectionist rhetoric. Is Kosovo strong enough to withstand any possible threat from Serbia that still considers it an integral part of its own and officially speaks to the Kosovo authorities with contempt and discrimination? Is there any possibility for Kosovo to stand on its own in occasions where it could get abandoned by its allies? Questions like these are unlikely to be answered if we take the international terrain as a garden full flowers and sunshine where everyone wants to live in harmony.
**Health ideology**
Health ideology returns the character of a state into its classic discourse. While witnessing the dominant roles of multinational giant corporations such as Google and Facebook, it is obvious that in matters of life and death, all companies can contribute beyond profit but cannot guarantee peoples’ lives which depend on salary and work. Coronavirus turned out to be a kind of mirror that gave countries a fragile view of themselves, countries that maybe failed to remind their role on ensuring people’s well-being in situations where companies cannot take responsibilities for them.
Despite the use of this pandemic for political means, solidarity between countries appears to be still present. Coronavirus will define who is going to dominate in global issues of the future. Countries within the EU will surely reflect and reconsider policies following this crisis. In countries where corporations constitute liberal spirit and identity of nations, every means to get out of crisis will be necessary. Whether the political outlook will change globally after coronavirus is almost certain. Finally, it is very important that leaders of world powers show exemplary leadership qualities so that citizens of the world can have at least a good night sleep and not think about uncertainties of tomorrow.
*Ali Hoxha has studied International Relations.
The post Geopolitics Of Health – OpEd appeared first on Eurasia Review. Reported by Eurasia Review 2 hours ago.
↧
Coronavirus In Arab Countries: Passing Storm, Opportunity For Change Or Regional Catastrophe? – Analysis
The COVID-19 pandemic is shaking the Arab countries hard. This paper analyses the regional context, government responses, possible economic and social implications, how this may affect political regimes and the risks for neighbouring countries, as well as some opportunities that may arise to resolve problems and conflicts that run through this complex region.
By Haizam Amirah-Fernández*
The COVID-19 pandemic has spread around the world at a time when the Arab region is under great pressure of various kinds. The responses of the Arab States to the threat of the new coronavirus, added to the international context that the pandemic is generating, have the potential to aggravate some of the existing problems. The current global emergency could turn socio-economic challenges into political crises and intensify the demands for change that are spreading through various countries in the Middle East and the Maghreb. Until an effective vaccine against the pandemic is made available, the economic and social cost of the drastic restrictions being imposed by Arab governments may be overwhelming and, ultimately, unbearable.
*Analysis*
-A region ill-prepared for a pandemic-
Although there are major differences between the 22 Arab countries in terms of their health systems and the resources available in the face of a pandemic, the region as a whole is ill-prepared to deal with the impact of a contagious and deadly disease that is spreading around the world. Most of the 435 million Arabs live in countries where the health services provided by the State are scarce, very poor or practically non-existent. The causes are linked to the lack of material resources, the high public spending in other areas such as defence, the dysfunctions of State institutions, mismanagement, brain drains, the lack of transparency in crisis communication and management, the limited trust that many people have in their rulers, armed conflicts and population displacements due to wars, among others.
To date, the spread of COVID-19 in the Arab countries has been limited compared to other regions around the world. However, some of the largest coronavirus outbreaks are found in their immediate neighbourhood (in countries such as Italy, Spain and Iran). In addition, the region has close commercial and geopolitical ties with countries in Europe, North America and East Asia, where the coronavirus is still present or expanding. Moreover, the low number of confirmed cases so far in Arab countries is due to the reduced scope of testing by their health services. In addition, many citizens suspect that authorities in their countries are not reporting all the information they have about the actual extent of the pandemic.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) warned in mid-March that COVID-19 had not yet reached its peak in the Middle East and North Africa, warning that the region should prepare for the worst as soon as possible. The WHO has also complained that, despite the seriousness of the situation, countries in the region were not providing sufficient information on cases of infection and urged them to make greater efforts to combat the coronavirus.
There are several factors that might facilitate a rapid spread of the new coronavirus in the Arab region, such as the numerous human contacts with countries hit by the pandemic (Iran and European and East Asian countries), the high population density in many Arab cities, the scarcity of means for the detection and treatment of cases of infection, the social proximity associated with Arab and Mediterranean cultures, as well as the high proportion of young people with high mobility that may contribute to the spread of the pandemic in their social and family environments.
The fact that Arab societies are considerably younger than those in other regions of the world (for example, the median age in Jordan is 23.8, in Egypt 24.6, in Algeria 28.5 and in Morocco 29.5, compared with 47.3 in Italy, 44.9 in Spain and 38.4 in China) may reduce the mortality caused by the pandemic in those countries, since it seems that older people are the most vulnerable. However, the Arab region is notable for its high relative rates of other diseases that can increase mortality from COVID-19, such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes. In addition, many of the leaders in several of these countries belong to the groups that are most vulnerable to coronavirus due to their advanced age.
As in other parts of the world, Arab governments took some time before assessing the seriousness of COVID-19 and taking steps to mitigate and contain its progress. However, once they saw the effects it was having on other countries, the Middle East and North Africa have seen some of the strictest isolation and containment measures, at least on paper. These include border closures, flight cancellations and airline groundings, home confinement of the population, closure of places of worship and banning of collective prayers, suspension of work permits for foreigners and repatriation of tourists to their countries of origin. Various forms of curfew have been decreed in several countries: night curfews in Tunisia since 18 March, in Saudi Arabia since 23 March and in Egypt since 24 March; an urban curfew in Baghdad since 17 March; and, in the most extreme case, a round-the-clock curfew in Jordan as of 21 March, until further notice. Containment measures are expected to increase in the short term as the pandemic spreads around the world.
-Social and economic impact-
Beyond the difficulties involved in implementing large-scale social-control measures, even for regimes with a high coercive capacity and an authoritarian nature, the economic and social cost of the drastic restrictions being imposed by Arab governments can be overwhelming and, ultimately, unbearable. In the most extreme situations, those of millions of refugees and internally displaced persons living in camps or substandard housing without minimum conditions of hygiene and health, the human cost could be massive if the pandemic reaches them. In the absence of an effective vaccine against COVID-19, several areas in the Middle East and North Africa could become new hot spots for the virus that causes it (SARS-CoV-2), leading, in the worst case scenario, to the isolation of the region from the rest of the world for a long period of time.
For the moment, the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the region’s economies is already being felt. A first blow was received by the tourism industry, with the massive cancellation of trips and tourist services in some Arab countries that generate wealth and employment thanks to the arrival of tourists from different areas of the world (several already subject to travel restrictions and home confinement of their potential tourists). In addition, on 4 March, Saudi Arabia suspended the permits to make the Umrah (the minor pilgrimage to Mecca that can be made throughout the year), as well as religious visits to Medina, due to the coronavirus. The greater annual Hajj pilgrimage, scheduled to start this year at the end of July, is hanging in the air. The total number of annual pilgrims exceeds 20 million, with all the economic activity that this generates inside and outside Saudi Arabia.
To gain an idea of its dimension, the tourism industry contributes directly and indirectly around 15% of Egypt’s GDP, 14% of Jordan’s, 12% of Tunisia’s and 8% of Morocco’s. As tourism is a labour-intensive sector, the almost total paralysis of its economic activity due to the global coronavirus crisis is a severe blow to employment and the livelihood of a large number of families. This comes at a time when projections earlier this year predicted a significant growth in tourism revenues throughout the region during 2020. In a matter of a few weeks, those rosy forecasts have been shattered.
The reduction or cessation of economic activity has been extended to virtually all areas following the adoption of measures to combat COVID-19. The closure of shops, non-basic services, educational centres, workplaces and leisure activities makes a scenario of economic collapse imaginable, either for specific sectors or for national economies. This will depend largely on the duration of the disruption caused by the coronavirus, as well as on the economic policies implemented by Arab governments to protect their businesses, workers and productive fabric. This will not be helped by the fact that the current fall in domestic demand will be aggravated by the effects of the announced global recession, due to the fall in external demand from its main trading partners, especially those in Europe and Asia.
As if all this were not enough, the COVID-19 crisis has been compounded by the oil price war initiated by Saudi Arabia on 7 March, which has caused the price of crude oil to plummet to levels of almost 20 years ago (around US$25 per barrel). The fall in demand from China, the main importer of Saudi oil, once it was hit by the coronavirus, led Riyadh to seek a deal to cut production with other oil-producing countries. Moscow’s refusal to follow suit led Saudi Arabia to increase its production and offer discounts to its buyers in order to gain market share. This, in turn, caused Russia to increase its production. The oversupply, coinciding with the economic slowdown caused by the pandemic, has led to an abrupt collapse in the price of oil, something that was not contemplated in any of the major forecasts at the beginning of the year.
-Coronavirus: an aggravating factor for existing problems-
For rentier economies that depend on the income generated by the sale of hydrocarbons, the drastic fall in prices at the height of the pandemic poses a major problem for their public accounts. In the Middle East and the Maghreb, this directly affects energy producers in the Gulf, but also *Algeria*. For more than a year, the latter has been experiencing widespread social mobilisations (hirak), unprecedented in terms of their duration and the civic attitude shown by the demonstrators over 56 consecutive weeks. The demonstrations were suspended on 20 March due to the increase in cases of COVID-19 and to avoid the risk of infection in a country with a poor health infrastructure.
There is a widespread feeling in Algeria that the political system is sclerotic and that it requires profound reforms to build a civil State with separation of powers and good governance. While Algeria’s rulers had high revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons, they could afford to buy social peace with subsidies and grants. However, with the expected sharp fall in revenues this year, along with the worrying decline in foreign exchange reserves, the outlook for Algeria over the next few years is far from reassuring. All this with a new President of the Republic, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who emerged from a dubious election held on 12 December, and whose legitimacy and political capital do not seem sufficiently solid for the next stage, that could see growing difficulties due to the irruption of the coronavirus pandemic.
*Morocco*, for its part, is also facing a significant drop in revenues in 2020, the extent of which is yet unknown. Morocco’s High Commissioner for Planning already declared in mid-March that this year would be the worst for the Moroccan economy since 1999. In addition to the fall in tourism, a global recession could significantly reduce the remittances sent by Moroccans working abroad, mainly in Europe, which account for over 6% of Morocco’s GDP. On the other hand, the fall in internal and external demand, the extent of which will depend on factors beyond the control of the Moroccan authorities, is compounded by a projected drop in agricultural production due to drought, as already occurred in 2019. Against this backdrop, it is foreseeable that the signs of social discontent already seen in recent years, caused by the lack of opportunities, economic inequalities and disparities between regions, will increase.
For *Tunisia*, the COVID-19 pandemic is the first major test for the new government that was formed in February, following the elections held on 6 October. This Maghrebi country –and the only democracy in the Arab region– has persistent economic problems that the current pandemic will make worse due to the drop in income from tourism and trade with Europe. The Tunisian government, like the Moroccan government and others in the region, has launched a campaign asking for donations from the population to meet the expenses that the State cannot cover in the fight against the coronavirus.
Both *Iraq* and *Lebanon* have experienced demonstrations since October 2019 calling for an end to corruption and for the State to fulfil its most basic functions. The multiple failures of the State and the absence of political leaders with the legitimacy and capacity to resolve these enormous problems, linked to systems corroded by sectarianism, can only deteriorate further with the arrival of the new pandemic. On the one hand, Iraq is suffering from a sharp drop in oil revenues, caused by the price war recently launched by Saudi Arabia. On the other, Lebanon is facing multiple simultaneous and deep crises, starting with the banking crisis that led the country to announce the first sovereign debt default in its history on 7 March. The sharp devaluation of the Lebanese pound (it has lost more than 40% of its value since last October) and the shortage of foreign currency in a heavily dollarised economy are causing the closure of businesses, the loss of jobs, inflation and serious difficulties in importing basic goods, including medical and health materials. The situation was already on the verge of a catastrophe before the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis.
*Syria*, *Yemen* and *Libya* are three countries in the throes of armed conflict and subject to all kinds of external interference that fuel their civil wars. It is striking that these three countries have declared an extremely low number of coronavirus infections, probably due to the low level of testing, as well as the withholding of information by opposing sides at all levels. It is true that the dangers of travel in these countries can reduce the spread of the coronavirus. However, the potential consequences of outbreaks in areas of these countries would be devastating, especially for the millions of people and internally displaced persons who lack healthcare and means of prevention. International assistance would be unable to contain the virus if complex emergencies occur in conflict areas or in refugee camps in neighbouring countries.
*Egypt*, which is the most populous country in the region (home to a quarter of the total Arab population), has recorded one of the highest numbers of infections among Arab countries, according to its authorities. However, the official data do not provide any guarantee of accuracy, judging by the record of the current regime. The regime seems to be confirming this with its decision to expel correspondents from some of the main international media that published news on the subject. A leaked document showed that, at least, two high-ranking officers in the Egyptian armed forces have been reportedly killed by COVID-19, suggesting that the pandemic is more widespread than reported.
The economic impact of the pandemic on Egypt may be due to the drop in revenues from the fall in tourism, the expected decline in maritime traffic through the Suez Canal and the reduction in remittances sent by Egyptians from oil-producing countries, among other factors crucial to the arrival of much-needed foreign currency. The coronavirus could spread rapidly through Egyptian cities, especially in Cairo, due to its high population density. There is also a risk that the pandemic could spread through Egypt’s overcrowded prisons, which are known for their poor health conditions.
The COVID-19 global crisis is highlighting the interdependence there is between the populations and economies of Israel and Palestine. The spread of the virus that causes the disease has forced the leaders of Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas to cooperate with each other in order to prevent a large-scale infection of the populations under their control in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza. One indication of the exceptionality of this situation is that the Israeli Government has allowed tens of thousands of Palestinian workers from the West Bank to settle on Israeli territory –something that was previously forbidden– for the duration of the health emergency in order to reduce the risk of infection. Where that risk is most worrying is in Gaza, one of the most densely-populated territories in the world. Gaza lacks the health infrastructure and water and electricity supplies needed by its 1.8 million inhabitants as a result of the Israeli blockade, mismanagement by Hamas’s local government and the devastation left by three wars with Israel between 2008 and 2014.
The six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) have more efficient health resources and systems than the rest of the region. However, economic turbulences and the fall in oil prices are increasing the pressure on their finances and public services. Virtually all of these countries have implemented extensive restrictive measures to contain the spread of the pandemic. However, there is a high risk of infection among foreign workers (in some Arab Gulf countries, they account for most of the population), especially those working in the key construction and service sectors, and who live in overcrowded conditions without access to good health services.
This new situation could have a great impact on the tourism and international transport industries in the Arab Gulf countries, as well as on the real-estate sector and on the major world events that will take place in that region, such as Expo 2020 in Dubai, which is scheduled to open on 20 October and is expected to attract 25 million visitors. Likewise, this year Saudi Arabia holds the presidency of the G-20, something that is of the utmost importance for the country’s de facto leader (the Crown Prince). The COVID-19 pandemic is a gigantic challenge that makes it more difficult to perform that function successfully, at a critical time for the international system.
-Opportunities at a time of COVID-19-
At present, the countries of the Middle East and the Maghreb are not working together to provide collective responses to the threat posed to all of them by the COVID-19 pandemic. With most of the 435 million Arabs already undergoing various forms of confinement, there has been no intergovernmental coordination between their countries and no meetings between their leaders –even virtual ones– have taken place. The Arab League has maintained absolute silence and all it has managed to do is to postpone the Arab summit scheduled to take place in Algiers on 30 March.
It is clear that the Arab countries today are missing an opportunity to overcome their political divisions and thus cooperate in the fight against the spread of the coronavirus in the region. However, it is not yet too late to initiate coordination of measures taken at the regional level, as well as to launch initiatives for cooperation and mutual support, at the material, technical and financial levels. This is a unique opportunity for the Arab League to demonstrate its usefulness, on the 75th anniversary of its foundation, by doing more than just issuing communiqués. The emergency should also serve to reactivate sub-regional initiatives such as the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), founded in 1989, which is now in a state of semi hibernation.
This is also an opportunity to change the basis of international cooperation between regions that are likely to be hit hard by the economic effects of the pandemic and the global recession that is looming. The EU should start thinking now –even before the health emergency has passed– about ways to relaunch Euro-Mediterranean cooperation, coinciding with the 25th anniversary of the Barcelona Process. It is very likely that major efforts and resources will be required for reconstruction on both sides of the Mediterranean after the pandemic has passed. Now is the time for the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) to prove whether it can help pull the whole region out of a serious multidimensional crisis, with the support of other multilateral development institutions. If it fails to do so, it will certify its irrelevance. Meanwhile, the EU recently announced that it has granted €450 million to Morocco and €250 million to Tunisia to combat the coronavirus pandemic and address its economic challenges. For sure, this is a good start, but it will serve little purpose if it is not accompanied by a regional and global effort to keep countries on both sides of the Mediterranean afloat.
The Arab region has been experiencing mobilisations and revolts against several of the regimes throughout the current decade caused by their economic failures, inefficient management, corrupt practices and authoritarian methods. The two waves of the ‘Arab awakening’ (2011 and 2019) have swept through most Arab countries and have been mainly caused by the erosion of economic security and the deterioration of social protection systems. The coronavirus pandemic may further undermine what remains of economic security and the social protection systems that are still in place. Undoubtedly, this same pandemic offers an opportunity to negotiate new social contracts in Arab countries at a time when the SARS-CoV-2 virus has slowed down anti-regime protests. For the moment, there are no signs that this will happen. Several of the most populous Arab countries are pressure cookers. The current health emergency may serve to reduce the pressure temporarily, but if the temperature of the unrest continues to rise, their lids might be blown off more violently when the crisis ends, especially if the Arab States accumulate more failures by mismanaging the health and economic consequences of the crisis.
Another opportunity opened up by the current pandemic is the cessation of fighting in territories suffering from armed conflict such as Yemen, Syria, Libya, Iraq and Gaza. This situation should be used to alter the course of the conflicts and bring the warring parties closer together, first to stop the spread of the coronavirus (which threatens all contenders) and then to take confidence-building measures and steps towards the resolution of those conflicts. The international community should not neglect these opportunities that now arise. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, called for an “immediate global ceasefire” on 23 March, reminding that the time has come to “put armed conflict on lockdown and focus together on the true fight of our lives”.
*Conclusions*
The most threatening pandemic to hit the world in a century is shaking the Arab countries hard. It has come at a time when the region was already under great pressure from weak social protection systems and high youth unemployment. These are some of the factors that have led to revolts and broad social mobilisations against the regimes in several countries during the current decade. A large-scale spread of COVID-19 would have political, economic and security implications that would lead to further destabilisation in such a volatile region.
So far, responses to the pandemic have varied widely across the Middle East and Maghreb countries, although most have enacted prevention measures involving social confinement and upholding economic activity. Although official data indicate a limited spread compared with other regions of the world, Arab governments are aware that some of the largest coronavirus outbreaks are found in their immediate neighbourhood (in countries such as Italy, Spain and Iran). In addition, the region has close commercial and geopolitical ties with countries in Europe, North America and East Asia, where the coronavirus is still present or expanding. Moreover, official data provided by Arab governments should be taken with caution, both because of the more than likely concealment of information and because of the scarcity of means to detect and record cases of infection and deaths.
It is still early to predict the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic will have on the Middle East and the Maghreb, but there is already enough evidence that, at the very least, it will have a high economic cost with numerous social and political spin-offs. Until an effective vaccine against the pandemic is marketed, the Arab States, like many others in the world, face a major dilemma: either they relax prevention measures that have a high socio-economic cost, allowing more infections and deaths, or they maintain the measures while the economy deteriorates and social unrest increases. In the absence of mechanisms for political participation by the population and of accountability for those in power, the management of the emergency may further strain the relationship between State and society.
The final outcome of this crisis for Arab countries will be conditioned by several factors such as the duration of the international health emergency, the effectiveness of State policies –where they exist– in mitigating its health and socio-economic consequences, and the perception that citizens have of the management of their rulers, among others. However, with rapidly changing global dynamics, many of the factors that will condition the way out of the crisis are beyond the control of Arab governments, since they depend on the global situation that, in turn, determines many of their sources of income (hydrocarbons, trade, tourism, transport, etc.) and the employment opportunities that their populations may find.
COVID-19 may be an aggravating factor for problems and a multiplier in conflicts in the Arab region. However, it can also offer an opportunity to increase regional cooperation, to move towards good governance and to change the course of armed conflict that has plagued several countries in the region. It is expected that the pandemic caused by the new coronavirus will not be the last of the global challenges that the younger generations in the Arab countries will experience, making it all the more urgent to work together and be better prepared to face global challenges.
This is probably the first time in the history of the Arab States that they are facing the threat of a common enemy –a global pandemic– that does not come from a State or an army. Similarly, there are no precedents of a common threat that does not emerge from power struggles or alliances dictated by geopolitics.
The way in which the Arab States manage the health and economic crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic will shape the future of the region and have strong implications for its neighbourhood. If regimes are able to manage such crises with some success, they could emerge strengthened from the situation. If, on the contrary, they resort to the usual tactics in the region when dealing with calamities (denying the evidence, providing uncoordinated and late responses, seeking blame abroad and giving free rein to their authoritarian character), then we can expect that coronavirus will aggravate the fractures and deepen the problems that run through the Arab region, creating instability for its neighbours at the worst possible time.
*About the author: Haizam Amirah-Fernández, Senior Analyst for the Mediterranean and Arab World at Elcano Royal Institute and Professor of International Relations at IE School of Global and Public Affairs | @HaizamAmirah
Source: This article was published by Elcano Royal Institute
Original version in Spanish: El coronavirus en los países árabes: ¿tormenta pasajera, oportunidad de cambio o hecatombe regional?
Arab version: فيروس كورونا في الدول العربية: عاصفة عابرة، فرصة للتغيير أم كارثة إقليمية؟
The post Coronavirus In Arab Countries: Passing Storm, Opportunity For Change Or Regional Catastrophe? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review. Reported by Eurasia Review 1 hour ago.
By Haizam Amirah-Fernández*
The COVID-19 pandemic has spread around the world at a time when the Arab region is under great pressure of various kinds. The responses of the Arab States to the threat of the new coronavirus, added to the international context that the pandemic is generating, have the potential to aggravate some of the existing problems. The current global emergency could turn socio-economic challenges into political crises and intensify the demands for change that are spreading through various countries in the Middle East and the Maghreb. Until an effective vaccine against the pandemic is made available, the economic and social cost of the drastic restrictions being imposed by Arab governments may be overwhelming and, ultimately, unbearable.
*Analysis*
-A region ill-prepared for a pandemic-
Although there are major differences between the 22 Arab countries in terms of their health systems and the resources available in the face of a pandemic, the region as a whole is ill-prepared to deal with the impact of a contagious and deadly disease that is spreading around the world. Most of the 435 million Arabs live in countries where the health services provided by the State are scarce, very poor or practically non-existent. The causes are linked to the lack of material resources, the high public spending in other areas such as defence, the dysfunctions of State institutions, mismanagement, brain drains, the lack of transparency in crisis communication and management, the limited trust that many people have in their rulers, armed conflicts and population displacements due to wars, among others.
To date, the spread of COVID-19 in the Arab countries has been limited compared to other regions around the world. However, some of the largest coronavirus outbreaks are found in their immediate neighbourhood (in countries such as Italy, Spain and Iran). In addition, the region has close commercial and geopolitical ties with countries in Europe, North America and East Asia, where the coronavirus is still present or expanding. Moreover, the low number of confirmed cases so far in Arab countries is due to the reduced scope of testing by their health services. In addition, many citizens suspect that authorities in their countries are not reporting all the information they have about the actual extent of the pandemic.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) warned in mid-March that COVID-19 had not yet reached its peak in the Middle East and North Africa, warning that the region should prepare for the worst as soon as possible. The WHO has also complained that, despite the seriousness of the situation, countries in the region were not providing sufficient information on cases of infection and urged them to make greater efforts to combat the coronavirus.
There are several factors that might facilitate a rapid spread of the new coronavirus in the Arab region, such as the numerous human contacts with countries hit by the pandemic (Iran and European and East Asian countries), the high population density in many Arab cities, the scarcity of means for the detection and treatment of cases of infection, the social proximity associated with Arab and Mediterranean cultures, as well as the high proportion of young people with high mobility that may contribute to the spread of the pandemic in their social and family environments.
The fact that Arab societies are considerably younger than those in other regions of the world (for example, the median age in Jordan is 23.8, in Egypt 24.6, in Algeria 28.5 and in Morocco 29.5, compared with 47.3 in Italy, 44.9 in Spain and 38.4 in China) may reduce the mortality caused by the pandemic in those countries, since it seems that older people are the most vulnerable. However, the Arab region is notable for its high relative rates of other diseases that can increase mortality from COVID-19, such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes. In addition, many of the leaders in several of these countries belong to the groups that are most vulnerable to coronavirus due to their advanced age.
As in other parts of the world, Arab governments took some time before assessing the seriousness of COVID-19 and taking steps to mitigate and contain its progress. However, once they saw the effects it was having on other countries, the Middle East and North Africa have seen some of the strictest isolation and containment measures, at least on paper. These include border closures, flight cancellations and airline groundings, home confinement of the population, closure of places of worship and banning of collective prayers, suspension of work permits for foreigners and repatriation of tourists to their countries of origin. Various forms of curfew have been decreed in several countries: night curfews in Tunisia since 18 March, in Saudi Arabia since 23 March and in Egypt since 24 March; an urban curfew in Baghdad since 17 March; and, in the most extreme case, a round-the-clock curfew in Jordan as of 21 March, until further notice. Containment measures are expected to increase in the short term as the pandemic spreads around the world.
-Social and economic impact-
Beyond the difficulties involved in implementing large-scale social-control measures, even for regimes with a high coercive capacity and an authoritarian nature, the economic and social cost of the drastic restrictions being imposed by Arab governments can be overwhelming and, ultimately, unbearable. In the most extreme situations, those of millions of refugees and internally displaced persons living in camps or substandard housing without minimum conditions of hygiene and health, the human cost could be massive if the pandemic reaches them. In the absence of an effective vaccine against COVID-19, several areas in the Middle East and North Africa could become new hot spots for the virus that causes it (SARS-CoV-2), leading, in the worst case scenario, to the isolation of the region from the rest of the world for a long period of time.
For the moment, the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the region’s economies is already being felt. A first blow was received by the tourism industry, with the massive cancellation of trips and tourist services in some Arab countries that generate wealth and employment thanks to the arrival of tourists from different areas of the world (several already subject to travel restrictions and home confinement of their potential tourists). In addition, on 4 March, Saudi Arabia suspended the permits to make the Umrah (the minor pilgrimage to Mecca that can be made throughout the year), as well as religious visits to Medina, due to the coronavirus. The greater annual Hajj pilgrimage, scheduled to start this year at the end of July, is hanging in the air. The total number of annual pilgrims exceeds 20 million, with all the economic activity that this generates inside and outside Saudi Arabia.
To gain an idea of its dimension, the tourism industry contributes directly and indirectly around 15% of Egypt’s GDP, 14% of Jordan’s, 12% of Tunisia’s and 8% of Morocco’s. As tourism is a labour-intensive sector, the almost total paralysis of its economic activity due to the global coronavirus crisis is a severe blow to employment and the livelihood of a large number of families. This comes at a time when projections earlier this year predicted a significant growth in tourism revenues throughout the region during 2020. In a matter of a few weeks, those rosy forecasts have been shattered.
The reduction or cessation of economic activity has been extended to virtually all areas following the adoption of measures to combat COVID-19. The closure of shops, non-basic services, educational centres, workplaces and leisure activities makes a scenario of economic collapse imaginable, either for specific sectors or for national economies. This will depend largely on the duration of the disruption caused by the coronavirus, as well as on the economic policies implemented by Arab governments to protect their businesses, workers and productive fabric. This will not be helped by the fact that the current fall in domestic demand will be aggravated by the effects of the announced global recession, due to the fall in external demand from its main trading partners, especially those in Europe and Asia.
As if all this were not enough, the COVID-19 crisis has been compounded by the oil price war initiated by Saudi Arabia on 7 March, which has caused the price of crude oil to plummet to levels of almost 20 years ago (around US$25 per barrel). The fall in demand from China, the main importer of Saudi oil, once it was hit by the coronavirus, led Riyadh to seek a deal to cut production with other oil-producing countries. Moscow’s refusal to follow suit led Saudi Arabia to increase its production and offer discounts to its buyers in order to gain market share. This, in turn, caused Russia to increase its production. The oversupply, coinciding with the economic slowdown caused by the pandemic, has led to an abrupt collapse in the price of oil, something that was not contemplated in any of the major forecasts at the beginning of the year.
-Coronavirus: an aggravating factor for existing problems-
For rentier economies that depend on the income generated by the sale of hydrocarbons, the drastic fall in prices at the height of the pandemic poses a major problem for their public accounts. In the Middle East and the Maghreb, this directly affects energy producers in the Gulf, but also *Algeria*. For more than a year, the latter has been experiencing widespread social mobilisations (hirak), unprecedented in terms of their duration and the civic attitude shown by the demonstrators over 56 consecutive weeks. The demonstrations were suspended on 20 March due to the increase in cases of COVID-19 and to avoid the risk of infection in a country with a poor health infrastructure.
There is a widespread feeling in Algeria that the political system is sclerotic and that it requires profound reforms to build a civil State with separation of powers and good governance. While Algeria’s rulers had high revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons, they could afford to buy social peace with subsidies and grants. However, with the expected sharp fall in revenues this year, along with the worrying decline in foreign exchange reserves, the outlook for Algeria over the next few years is far from reassuring. All this with a new President of the Republic, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who emerged from a dubious election held on 12 December, and whose legitimacy and political capital do not seem sufficiently solid for the next stage, that could see growing difficulties due to the irruption of the coronavirus pandemic.
*Morocco*, for its part, is also facing a significant drop in revenues in 2020, the extent of which is yet unknown. Morocco’s High Commissioner for Planning already declared in mid-March that this year would be the worst for the Moroccan economy since 1999. In addition to the fall in tourism, a global recession could significantly reduce the remittances sent by Moroccans working abroad, mainly in Europe, which account for over 6% of Morocco’s GDP. On the other hand, the fall in internal and external demand, the extent of which will depend on factors beyond the control of the Moroccan authorities, is compounded by a projected drop in agricultural production due to drought, as already occurred in 2019. Against this backdrop, it is foreseeable that the signs of social discontent already seen in recent years, caused by the lack of opportunities, economic inequalities and disparities between regions, will increase.
For *Tunisia*, the COVID-19 pandemic is the first major test for the new government that was formed in February, following the elections held on 6 October. This Maghrebi country –and the only democracy in the Arab region– has persistent economic problems that the current pandemic will make worse due to the drop in income from tourism and trade with Europe. The Tunisian government, like the Moroccan government and others in the region, has launched a campaign asking for donations from the population to meet the expenses that the State cannot cover in the fight against the coronavirus.
Both *Iraq* and *Lebanon* have experienced demonstrations since October 2019 calling for an end to corruption and for the State to fulfil its most basic functions. The multiple failures of the State and the absence of political leaders with the legitimacy and capacity to resolve these enormous problems, linked to systems corroded by sectarianism, can only deteriorate further with the arrival of the new pandemic. On the one hand, Iraq is suffering from a sharp drop in oil revenues, caused by the price war recently launched by Saudi Arabia. On the other, Lebanon is facing multiple simultaneous and deep crises, starting with the banking crisis that led the country to announce the first sovereign debt default in its history on 7 March. The sharp devaluation of the Lebanese pound (it has lost more than 40% of its value since last October) and the shortage of foreign currency in a heavily dollarised economy are causing the closure of businesses, the loss of jobs, inflation and serious difficulties in importing basic goods, including medical and health materials. The situation was already on the verge of a catastrophe before the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis.
*Syria*, *Yemen* and *Libya* are three countries in the throes of armed conflict and subject to all kinds of external interference that fuel their civil wars. It is striking that these three countries have declared an extremely low number of coronavirus infections, probably due to the low level of testing, as well as the withholding of information by opposing sides at all levels. It is true that the dangers of travel in these countries can reduce the spread of the coronavirus. However, the potential consequences of outbreaks in areas of these countries would be devastating, especially for the millions of people and internally displaced persons who lack healthcare and means of prevention. International assistance would be unable to contain the virus if complex emergencies occur in conflict areas or in refugee camps in neighbouring countries.
*Egypt*, which is the most populous country in the region (home to a quarter of the total Arab population), has recorded one of the highest numbers of infections among Arab countries, according to its authorities. However, the official data do not provide any guarantee of accuracy, judging by the record of the current regime. The regime seems to be confirming this with its decision to expel correspondents from some of the main international media that published news on the subject. A leaked document showed that, at least, two high-ranking officers in the Egyptian armed forces have been reportedly killed by COVID-19, suggesting that the pandemic is more widespread than reported.
The economic impact of the pandemic on Egypt may be due to the drop in revenues from the fall in tourism, the expected decline in maritime traffic through the Suez Canal and the reduction in remittances sent by Egyptians from oil-producing countries, among other factors crucial to the arrival of much-needed foreign currency. The coronavirus could spread rapidly through Egyptian cities, especially in Cairo, due to its high population density. There is also a risk that the pandemic could spread through Egypt’s overcrowded prisons, which are known for their poor health conditions.
The COVID-19 global crisis is highlighting the interdependence there is between the populations and economies of Israel and Palestine. The spread of the virus that causes the disease has forced the leaders of Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas to cooperate with each other in order to prevent a large-scale infection of the populations under their control in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza. One indication of the exceptionality of this situation is that the Israeli Government has allowed tens of thousands of Palestinian workers from the West Bank to settle on Israeli territory –something that was previously forbidden– for the duration of the health emergency in order to reduce the risk of infection. Where that risk is most worrying is in Gaza, one of the most densely-populated territories in the world. Gaza lacks the health infrastructure and water and electricity supplies needed by its 1.8 million inhabitants as a result of the Israeli blockade, mismanagement by Hamas’s local government and the devastation left by three wars with Israel between 2008 and 2014.
The six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) have more efficient health resources and systems than the rest of the region. However, economic turbulences and the fall in oil prices are increasing the pressure on their finances and public services. Virtually all of these countries have implemented extensive restrictive measures to contain the spread of the pandemic. However, there is a high risk of infection among foreign workers (in some Arab Gulf countries, they account for most of the population), especially those working in the key construction and service sectors, and who live in overcrowded conditions without access to good health services.
This new situation could have a great impact on the tourism and international transport industries in the Arab Gulf countries, as well as on the real-estate sector and on the major world events that will take place in that region, such as Expo 2020 in Dubai, which is scheduled to open on 20 October and is expected to attract 25 million visitors. Likewise, this year Saudi Arabia holds the presidency of the G-20, something that is of the utmost importance for the country’s de facto leader (the Crown Prince). The COVID-19 pandemic is a gigantic challenge that makes it more difficult to perform that function successfully, at a critical time for the international system.
-Opportunities at a time of COVID-19-
At present, the countries of the Middle East and the Maghreb are not working together to provide collective responses to the threat posed to all of them by the COVID-19 pandemic. With most of the 435 million Arabs already undergoing various forms of confinement, there has been no intergovernmental coordination between their countries and no meetings between their leaders –even virtual ones– have taken place. The Arab League has maintained absolute silence and all it has managed to do is to postpone the Arab summit scheduled to take place in Algiers on 30 March.
It is clear that the Arab countries today are missing an opportunity to overcome their political divisions and thus cooperate in the fight against the spread of the coronavirus in the region. However, it is not yet too late to initiate coordination of measures taken at the regional level, as well as to launch initiatives for cooperation and mutual support, at the material, technical and financial levels. This is a unique opportunity for the Arab League to demonstrate its usefulness, on the 75th anniversary of its foundation, by doing more than just issuing communiqués. The emergency should also serve to reactivate sub-regional initiatives such as the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), founded in 1989, which is now in a state of semi hibernation.
This is also an opportunity to change the basis of international cooperation between regions that are likely to be hit hard by the economic effects of the pandemic and the global recession that is looming. The EU should start thinking now –even before the health emergency has passed– about ways to relaunch Euro-Mediterranean cooperation, coinciding with the 25th anniversary of the Barcelona Process. It is very likely that major efforts and resources will be required for reconstruction on both sides of the Mediterranean after the pandemic has passed. Now is the time for the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) to prove whether it can help pull the whole region out of a serious multidimensional crisis, with the support of other multilateral development institutions. If it fails to do so, it will certify its irrelevance. Meanwhile, the EU recently announced that it has granted €450 million to Morocco and €250 million to Tunisia to combat the coronavirus pandemic and address its economic challenges. For sure, this is a good start, but it will serve little purpose if it is not accompanied by a regional and global effort to keep countries on both sides of the Mediterranean afloat.
The Arab region has been experiencing mobilisations and revolts against several of the regimes throughout the current decade caused by their economic failures, inefficient management, corrupt practices and authoritarian methods. The two waves of the ‘Arab awakening’ (2011 and 2019) have swept through most Arab countries and have been mainly caused by the erosion of economic security and the deterioration of social protection systems. The coronavirus pandemic may further undermine what remains of economic security and the social protection systems that are still in place. Undoubtedly, this same pandemic offers an opportunity to negotiate new social contracts in Arab countries at a time when the SARS-CoV-2 virus has slowed down anti-regime protests. For the moment, there are no signs that this will happen. Several of the most populous Arab countries are pressure cookers. The current health emergency may serve to reduce the pressure temporarily, but if the temperature of the unrest continues to rise, their lids might be blown off more violently when the crisis ends, especially if the Arab States accumulate more failures by mismanaging the health and economic consequences of the crisis.
Another opportunity opened up by the current pandemic is the cessation of fighting in territories suffering from armed conflict such as Yemen, Syria, Libya, Iraq and Gaza. This situation should be used to alter the course of the conflicts and bring the warring parties closer together, first to stop the spread of the coronavirus (which threatens all contenders) and then to take confidence-building measures and steps towards the resolution of those conflicts. The international community should not neglect these opportunities that now arise. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, called for an “immediate global ceasefire” on 23 March, reminding that the time has come to “put armed conflict on lockdown and focus together on the true fight of our lives”.
*Conclusions*
The most threatening pandemic to hit the world in a century is shaking the Arab countries hard. It has come at a time when the region was already under great pressure from weak social protection systems and high youth unemployment. These are some of the factors that have led to revolts and broad social mobilisations against the regimes in several countries during the current decade. A large-scale spread of COVID-19 would have political, economic and security implications that would lead to further destabilisation in such a volatile region.
So far, responses to the pandemic have varied widely across the Middle East and Maghreb countries, although most have enacted prevention measures involving social confinement and upholding economic activity. Although official data indicate a limited spread compared with other regions of the world, Arab governments are aware that some of the largest coronavirus outbreaks are found in their immediate neighbourhood (in countries such as Italy, Spain and Iran). In addition, the region has close commercial and geopolitical ties with countries in Europe, North America and East Asia, where the coronavirus is still present or expanding. Moreover, official data provided by Arab governments should be taken with caution, both because of the more than likely concealment of information and because of the scarcity of means to detect and record cases of infection and deaths.
It is still early to predict the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic will have on the Middle East and the Maghreb, but there is already enough evidence that, at the very least, it will have a high economic cost with numerous social and political spin-offs. Until an effective vaccine against the pandemic is marketed, the Arab States, like many others in the world, face a major dilemma: either they relax prevention measures that have a high socio-economic cost, allowing more infections and deaths, or they maintain the measures while the economy deteriorates and social unrest increases. In the absence of mechanisms for political participation by the population and of accountability for those in power, the management of the emergency may further strain the relationship between State and society.
The final outcome of this crisis for Arab countries will be conditioned by several factors such as the duration of the international health emergency, the effectiveness of State policies –where they exist– in mitigating its health and socio-economic consequences, and the perception that citizens have of the management of their rulers, among others. However, with rapidly changing global dynamics, many of the factors that will condition the way out of the crisis are beyond the control of Arab governments, since they depend on the global situation that, in turn, determines many of their sources of income (hydrocarbons, trade, tourism, transport, etc.) and the employment opportunities that their populations may find.
COVID-19 may be an aggravating factor for problems and a multiplier in conflicts in the Arab region. However, it can also offer an opportunity to increase regional cooperation, to move towards good governance and to change the course of armed conflict that has plagued several countries in the region. It is expected that the pandemic caused by the new coronavirus will not be the last of the global challenges that the younger generations in the Arab countries will experience, making it all the more urgent to work together and be better prepared to face global challenges.
This is probably the first time in the history of the Arab States that they are facing the threat of a common enemy –a global pandemic– that does not come from a State or an army. Similarly, there are no precedents of a common threat that does not emerge from power struggles or alliances dictated by geopolitics.
The way in which the Arab States manage the health and economic crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic will shape the future of the region and have strong implications for its neighbourhood. If regimes are able to manage such crises with some success, they could emerge strengthened from the situation. If, on the contrary, they resort to the usual tactics in the region when dealing with calamities (denying the evidence, providing uncoordinated and late responses, seeking blame abroad and giving free rein to their authoritarian character), then we can expect that coronavirus will aggravate the fractures and deepen the problems that run through the Arab region, creating instability for its neighbours at the worst possible time.
*About the author: Haizam Amirah-Fernández, Senior Analyst for the Mediterranean and Arab World at Elcano Royal Institute and Professor of International Relations at IE School of Global and Public Affairs | @HaizamAmirah
Source: This article was published by Elcano Royal Institute
Original version in Spanish: El coronavirus en los países árabes: ¿tormenta pasajera, oportunidad de cambio o hecatombe regional?
Arab version: فيروس كورونا في الدول العربية: عاصفة عابرة، فرصة للتغيير أم كارثة إقليمية؟
The post Coronavirus In Arab Countries: Passing Storm, Opportunity For Change Or Regional Catastrophe? – Analysis appeared first on Eurasia Review. Reported by Eurasia Review 1 hour ago.
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20,000: US death toll overtakes Italy's as Midwest braces
CHICAGO (AP) — The U.S. death toll from the coronavirus eclipsed Italy's for the highest in the world Saturday, surpassing 20,000, as Chicago and other cities across the Midwest braced for a potential surge in victims and moved to snuff out smoldering hot spots of contagion before they erupt.
With the New York area still deep in crisis, fear mounted over the spread of the scourge into the nation’s heartland.
Twenty-four residents of an Indiana nursing home hit by COVID-19 have died, while a nursing home in Iowa saw 14 deaths. Chicago's Cook County has set up a temporary morgue that can take more than 2,000 bodies. And Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot has been going around telling groups of people to “break it up.”
In Europe, countries used roadblocks, drones, helicopters, mounted patrols and the threat of fines to keep people from traveling over Easter weekend. And with infections and deaths slowing in Italy, Spain and other places on the Continent, governments took tentative steps toward loosening the weeks-long shutdowns.
Glorious weather across Europe posed an extra test of people's discipline.
“Don’t do silly things,” said Domenico Arcuri, Italy’s special commissioner for the virus emergency. “Don’t go out, continue to behave responsibly as you have done until today, use your head and your sense of responsibility.”
The outbreak’s center of gravity has long since shifted from China to Europe and the United State s, which now has by far the largest number of confirmed cases — over a half-million — and a death toll higher than Italy's count of nearly 19,500, according to the tally kept by Johns Hopkins University.
The death rate — that is, the number of dead relative to the population — is still far higher in Italy than in U.S., which has more than five times as many people. And... Reported by SeattlePI.com 1 hour ago.
With the New York area still deep in crisis, fear mounted over the spread of the scourge into the nation’s heartland.
Twenty-four residents of an Indiana nursing home hit by COVID-19 have died, while a nursing home in Iowa saw 14 deaths. Chicago's Cook County has set up a temporary morgue that can take more than 2,000 bodies. And Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot has been going around telling groups of people to “break it up.”
In Europe, countries used roadblocks, drones, helicopters, mounted patrols and the threat of fines to keep people from traveling over Easter weekend. And with infections and deaths slowing in Italy, Spain and other places on the Continent, governments took tentative steps toward loosening the weeks-long shutdowns.
Glorious weather across Europe posed an extra test of people's discipline.
“Don’t do silly things,” said Domenico Arcuri, Italy’s special commissioner for the virus emergency. “Don’t go out, continue to behave responsibly as you have done until today, use your head and your sense of responsibility.”
The outbreak’s center of gravity has long since shifted from China to Europe and the United State s, which now has by far the largest number of confirmed cases — over a half-million — and a death toll higher than Italy's count of nearly 19,500, according to the tally kept by Johns Hopkins University.
The death rate — that is, the number of dead relative to the population — is still far higher in Italy than in U.S., which has more than five times as many people. And... Reported by SeattlePI.com 1 hour ago.
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Trump warned 'early, often' on coronavirus threat: Live updates
US overtakes Italy for most coronavirus-related deaths, reporting more than 20,000 fatalities.
Reported by Al Jazeera 52 minutes ago.
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UK deaths near 9,000, no sign of lockdown easing
Britain has not yet reached the COVID-19 peak which would allow for an easing of tight restrictions of movement, health minister Matt Hancock said on Saturday, as the death toll in British hospitals..
Studio: Reuters Studio
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Deadly resurgence' if curbs lifted too early, WHO warns
Geneva - WHO Director-GeneralDr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said countries should be cautious about easing restrictions, even as some struggle with the economic impact. Europe's worst hit countries,..
Studio: Newsvia English
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Spain's Daily Coronavirus Death Toll Decreases
According to Reuters, Spain’s daily coronavirus death toll fell for the third day in a row. The health ministry reported as of Saturday that Spain had 510 fatalities within a 24 hour period, the..
Studio: Wochit Entertainment
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