Brazil Thoughts Brazil has made progress since Luiz Felipe Scolari was appointed as manager last November but during the last two weeks the positive change became exponential. Five games, five wins, scored 14, conceded only three goals and kept three clean sheets. Brazil’s performance climaxed with a 3-0 humiliation of World Champions Spain on Sunday in Rio. Over the last two weeks we witnessed the likes of goalkeeper Julio Cesar regain some of the form and confidence of pre-World Cup 2010. Back then he was justifiably regarded as one of the best goalkeepers in the world but failure at the Finals turned him into a suspect and inconsistent keeper. Now he has bounced back and along with Dani Alves and Thiago Silva they are the only survivors from the 22 that lost 2-1 to the Netherlands. Dani Alves was unusually conservative in his approach in the final match which is probably testament to the manager’s influence. Marcelo on the left side was by far the more attacking of the full backs on Sunday. Thiago Silva was excellent apart from a slip against Italy while one of these days his critics will realize that what David Luiz brings to a team far outweighs any of his supposedly cavalier approach to defending. The midfield was nicely balanced and with Oscar floating across the park and prompting Fred and Neymar it was a potent combination. But to play the devil’s advocate Brazil needs to remember that over the years they have specialized in being World Champions at the dress rehearsal one year before only to then fail on the big stage. The biggest battle facing Scolari is now that of excessive expectations. While Scolari has preached continuous improvement it may have all come a year to soon. The Confederations Cup takes only 5 games while to win the World Cup means getting through 7 games. Scolari went with a “short-bench” and only 12 players made the starting line up and just six more saw very limited time from the bench. To plan on navigating successfully through 7 games without the same starting line-up is very risky. Further, an injury to Neymar and/or Oscar would leave a very large hole while Fred is notoriously inconsistent. What’s more every country with hopes of appearing at the Finals next summer will set to work at finding and exploiting Brazil’s weaknesses. Numbers The win against Spain was Brazil’s 12th consecutive win at the Confederations Cup and the fourth time they have lifted the trophy. Going into this calendar year Fred had scored 7 times in 19 appearances for Brazil. In 2013 he has added nine goals in just ten games for Brazil. Spain Thoughts Whoever lost the final was liable to play the “it’s better to happen now than next year ”card. And the thing is that statement is not wrong. Spain is now into year 7 of an unprecedented run of success. (Those who use Brazil ’58, ’62 and ’70 are off the mark given the country’s failure in 1966. From 1958 to 1970 there at least three Brazil teams while this current Spain team has a consistent thread running through it.) Spain can look to absence of Xabi Alonso as being an important missing cog but that implies that all players will be fit and able next summer – that is far from certain. Being able to adjust and to fill gaps is a part of a successful manager’s responsibilities. There was an eerie similarity between Spain’s loss to Brazil and Barcelona’s defeat over two legs by Bayern Munich. (Borussia Dortmund’s win over Real Madrid not so much in my opinion). Spain’s passing game was squeezed into a compact area of the midfield and so when Spain managed to get through the midfield they then faced a back four that was set rather than being off balance or being attacked on multiple fronts by players’ movement off the ball. But even more important was that when Brazil won the ball they knew what they wanted to do with it. Like Bayern Munich they did not panic and were brave turning defense into attack. Add composure to a well executed and speedy counter attack and Spain was suddenly playing off the back foot rather than dictating in dangerous areas. The job facing Spain manager Vicente del Bosque is as much mental as it is physical. After an elongated period of success do the fires of ambition still burn in his players? As dumb as it sounds given del Bosque’s record could it be that like all managers his time has come and gone and perhaps a fresh face is needed to spark a reaction. Or is it case of gambling on the ambition of youth and move some of the older players on during World Cup qualifying knowing that by next summer old legs will have even more mileage on them? Lot’s of questions and del Bosque needs to find the answers. Numbers The 3-0 loss was only the third Spain has suffered under Vicente del Bosque and followed a 2-0 loss to the USA at the 2009 Confederations Cup and a 1-0 defeat by Switzerland in group play at the 2010 World Cup Finals in South Africa. In the four games leading to the final Spain allowed their opponents 8 shots on goal. Brazil matched that tally in the last game. Italy Thoughts There will not be a more interesting to team to watch and analyze over the next 12 months than Italy – assuming that they qualify for Brazil 2014. Italy sits on the cusp and could still fall either way. If the faults that were so visible are not fixed then it may be a repeat of 2010; correct the problems and a top four finish next summer might be within reach. With ten goals scored in five games there seems very little problem in the way of goal production. But on the other hand the ten goals that Italy conceded point to problems keeping the opposition out. Questions abound. Buffon may have saved three penalties in the shoot out against Uruguay but generally he played poorly over the course of the tournament. Was this just a momentary lapse in form or part of the inevitable decline as Buffon grows older? Chiellini is going to continue to be the heart of the Italian defence but who will he be teamed with? Can Coach Cesare Prandelli coax another series of great performances out of Andrea Pirlo? By next summer he will be 35 and Prandelli may be secretly hoping that Juventus rest him throughout the regular season. Daniele De Rossi was superb at the Confederations Cup and his adaptability and flexibility offers Prandelli so many different tactical options. An in-form and energetic Claudio Marchisio is a must for Italy but they need more of the same and some extra speed as well. The likes of Montolivo and Aquilani are beautiful passers but neither have an appetite to shut down the opposition midfield quickly and aggressively. Mario Balotelli will strike fear into most defenses but who will partner him up front? So many questions, so little time. Numbers Italy conceded 3 goals to Japan and then 4 to Brazil in the next match. You have to go back to 1976 to find the last time a full Italy national team allowed three goals in consecutive matches. Italy’s win in the penalty shoot out over Uruguay meant they avoided becoming the first country ever to lose seven shoot outs in major competitions. Their record is now 4-6. Uruguay Thoughts Finishing the Confederations Cup with a 2-2 record and the other a loss in a penalty kick shoot out does not appear to offer much cause for celebration. However, Uruguay’s fortunes have plunged so dramatically in World Cup qualifying over the last ten months that their performance at the Confederations Cup combined with a 1-0 away win against Venezuela gives hope that they will at least make the South America play off spot for the World Cup Finals. Losing by single goals to Spain and Brazil and in a penalty shoot out to Italy will only serve to reinforce Coach Oscar Tabarez’s commitment to a squad that may have peaked in 2010/11. With a defence seemingly fashioned from barbed wire and the opportunism of Cavani and Suarez in attack Uruguay will now regroup for their final four qualifiers against Peru (A), Colombia (H), Ecuador (A) and Argentina (H). Experience may just be the difference between Uruguay finishing 5th and their closest rivals Venezuela and Peru failing. Numbers Probably no surprise that no country made more tackles in the tournament than Uruguay – 55. With a pass completion rate of 71% only Tahiti (69%) passed the ball with less success than Uruguay. Mexico Thoughts Despite what some commentators told us during the Confederations Cup Mexico is not in danger of missing out on the World Cup Finals for the first time since 1990. Now, it is true that Mexico sits in the third and last of the automatic qualifying spots in CONCACAF. But they are a point ahead of Honduras in fourth and two points ahead of Panama and both countries still have to visit the Azteca and Honduras and Panama have to play each other. Given the schedule, who is in the stronger position Mexico, Honduras or Panama? And remember even if Mexico is squeezed out of third, fourth place still offers a “get-out-of-jail-card” by way of a play-off against New Zealand of Oceania. What’s more the Confederations Cup might just be looked upon as the turning point in Mexico’s fortune. A very flat opening display against Italy resulted in a very flattering (for Mexico) 2-1 loss. Conceding an early goal against Brazil was not the most auspicious of starts but a complacent home side allowed Mexico back into the game. Although Brazil won 2-0 Mexico did enjoy some good spells. The last game brought a 2-1 win over Japan and there were signs that Coach Jose Manuel De La Torre had finally come to grips with some of Mexico’s short comings. The most influential move was moving Andres Guardado into a more central position and having him link the defensive midfield with the likes of Giovani dos Santos and Javier Hernandez in attack. The result was more rapid ball movement and greater fluency to Mexico’s play. Whether the performance against Japan will turn out to be a false dawn we should find out soon with the CONCACAF Gold Cup set to start July 7. Numbers Mexico might claim that an inch the other way and things might have been different. They hit the cross bar twice and a post once. A worrying statistic is the lack of chances created inside the opposition’s penalty area. In three matches, Mexico only had 6 shots on goal from inside the area – just one more than Tahiti. Japan Thoughts Japan arrived having already qualified for next summers World Cup Finals and having shown some impressive form along the way. Clearly group A with Brazil, Italy and Mexico was going to be the more difficult of the two but there was justifiable hope that Japan might be the dark-horse of the tournament. Three defeats were not part of the script. The opening loss was put down to jet lag and arriving just 48 hours before the game against Brazil. The second match gave some credence to that excuse given the way Japan set about Italy. From a neutral perspective the game was outstanding and there was an acknowledgment that Japan was the better side and did not “deserve” to loss. However, Japan should not take that thought to heart because the result contains a dire warning for Japan. For as good and as entertaining as Japan was their defending was woeful. While Okazaki, Honda and Kagawa displayed a potent mixture of finesse, cunning, power and link play their team mates’ display at the other end of the park negated the good. Striking the right balance between attack and defence is one of the most difficult to achieve for a coach. But unless Japan Coach Alberto Zaccheroni can get that delicate balance right over the next 12 months Japan will just be another country that entertained but ultimately failed to achieve their potential. Numbers Japan allowed 9 goals over three games and only Tahiti conceded more. Goalkeeper Eiji Kawashima saved fewer shots (8) than he allowed goals. Nigeria Thoughts Nigeria’s failure to progress beyond the group stage at the Confederations Cup was the latest in a couple of bumps on the road that they hope will eventually take them to the World Cup Finals next summer. Africa is currently at the semi-final stage of World Cup qualifying but Nigeria missed an opportunity to make sure of a place in the final round of qualifying just five days before their opening Confederations Cup. A win away to Namibia would have done the job but now they need to get a result against nearest challengers Malawi in September in order to move on. There was also the absence of Emmanuel Emenike (top scorer at the African Cup of Nations back in January) and Victor Moses of Chelsea. The 6-1 win over Tahiti told us very little about Nigeria’s chances they are still favored to get to Brazil next summer. The second game 2-1 loss to Uruguay essentially sealed Nigeria’s fate. Slack defending cost them the first goal while a rudimentary but well executed counter attack took advantage of Nigeria being caught badly out of position and over committed to attack. That left Nigeria needing to beat Spain by a hefty margin in order to qualify and it was never a realistic outcome. The pace of Nigeria on the counter-attack caused Spain’s defence a number of problems but it also flattered to deceive as well. The most glaring shortcoming in this Nigeria team was a creative passer able to pick open a well marshaled defence. Coach Stephen Keshi pushed Chelsea’s John Obi Mikel into more advanced positions with limited success. More often than not the Nigeria midfield played balls into spaces that did not exist or to players who would then turn and face a wall of defenders. Numbers Nigeria scored 7 goals but two came from own goals from Tahiti players. In three games Nigeria’s defence only completed two successful clearances – the lowest by any country in the competition. Eight tackles – four successful – was also a tournament low. Tahiti Thoughts If soccer is truly the world game then there has to be a place at the table for everyone. Tahiti became the smallest country to ever play in a world tournament and never stood a chance. Despite being warmly received and supported by Brazilian fans Tahiti was not only vastly over-matched but also had a dreadful tendency to make costly mistakes. Misplaced passes in and around their own penalty area, own goals, poor decision making and deflections all added up to a defensive nightmare. Tahiti did however score a goal and that is something that some previous participants at the FIFA Confederations Cup cannot say. Numbers No shortage of goals in Tahiti’s matches but of the 25, 24 were conceded. The 10-0 thumping from Spain was the largest defeat ever suffered by a country at a FIFA international tournament.
Reported by Forbes.com 3 days ago.
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